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For a brief period, Donald Trump appeared to adopt a firm position on the Ukrainian conflict. After issuing statements of "severe repercussions" during the summer in case Putin continued hindering truce negotiations, Trump ultimately enacted substantial penalties on Russia's two largest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action seriously affected Putin's capacity to support his aggression in the region.

Yet, through his newly presented comprehensive peace proposal for Ukraine, which was developed by American and Russian officials without Ukrainian or EU participation, Trump has apparently gone back to his favorable to Russia stance.

Benefiting Military Action

This proposal would essentially favor Putin for invading Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's democracy in jeopardy. Despite bold declarations that "The nation's autonomy will be affirmed", large portions of the initiative actually weaken that essential sovereignty. What represents a Moscow's wish would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his real-estate background, the former president seems to view the Ukrainian conflict as a simple border issue, implying ceding Russia a part of Ukrainian land will appease the ruler. But, Russia's military campaign is not only about occupying a damaged region of industrial-devastated land in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's apparent goal to eliminate it so it stops functions as an enticing model for the Russia's population of the democratic governance that his increasing autocracy denies them.

Territorial Surrenders

Although keeping in status the already divided oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the plan would require the nation to surrender the entire Donetsk province. Aside from rewarding the Russian Federation with territory that its forces have been failed to occupy in exceeding a ten years of conflict, this surrender would render Ukraine's military defenses dangerously undermined.

The area is the site of Ukraine's highly-touted "stronghold system", the well-established military defenses that constitute a key barrier to Russian advances. Trump would have the Ukrainian military leave these fortifications, giving Putin a clear path to Kyiv should he eventually decide to resume the conflict.

Military Reductions

Furthermore, in a move that would enable future hostilities more feasible for the Russian military, Trump would force Ukraine to cut the size of its troops from their present large number personnel to a maximum of this lower number. Notably, Trump's proposal sets no such restrictions on Russia's military.

In what appears as a accommodation to Putin's campaign to characterize the nation's legitimate administration as radicals, the proposal states: "All extremist ideology and activities must be condemned and prohibited." As if to emphasize this element, it demands that "The nation will hold elections in this period" of a peace deal. At the same time, Trump sets no obligation that the Russian leader risk his regime by allowing democratic processes in his own country.

Protection Guarantees

Admittedly, the proposal has the Russian Federation pledge not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "establish in legislation its position of peaceful relations towards Europe and Ukraine". However considering that the Russian leadership has breached comparable treaties in the history – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government promised to respect the nation's territorial integrity in return for relinquishing its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia committed to a truce and a handback of seized areas in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – why should we trust Russia on this occasion?

For this reason Ukraine has been so adamant on international security guarantees. Although the plan threatens a "decisive coordinated armed reaction" in case Russia resume its military campaign, and includes that "The nation will receive dependable protection assurances", the specifics vary from fuzzy to alarming. The proposal would not just prevent the nation Nato membership but also prevent alliance nations from deploying troops on Ukrainian territory, thus preventing the security presence, reportedly led by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to deter Putin from replenishing his diminished military, rearming, and reinvading.

International Reaction

A separate supplementary accord reportedly would grant the nation with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any subsequent "major, intentional, and continuous military assault" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "will be treated as an act of war threatening the tranquility of the transatlantic community." This implies a defense action. But unlike a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's primary deterrent against renewed Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would hinge on the willingness of alliance members, including Trump, to act with force to Putin's attacks, a response they have {not